Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Yesterday I stopped at the Westgate Superbook, the world's largest race & sports book and home to the widest assortment of SuperBowl prop bets anywhere.

They offer more than 400 props in a thick 30-page packet!

In addition to the run-of-the-mill wagers like the number of  TD passes by Tom Brady or Matt Ryan, they offer such esoteric wagers as:

The number of goals the Montreal Canadiens score against Edmonton vs. the number of reception by Pats tight end Marcellus Bennett.

The number of goals by the Manchester City soccer team vs. Tom Brady TD passes.

Tiger Woods 4th round birdies vs Matt Ryan TD passes.

Kevin Durant's points & rebounds vs. Brady's total pass attempts.

Lebron James points vs. Matt Ryan's completions.

 After pouring over the 30-page packet, I threw $10 on each of these wagers.

Will NE or ATL score 3 straight times? I bet no...My 10 will return 27. My thinking is that these are two high scoring offenses and they should end up swapping scores enough to win this one. I don't think either offense will be totally shut down.

Will shortest TD be over/under 1.5 yards? I bet over. My 10 will return 25. I've made this bet in other super bowls and, I think, only won it once. C'mon no 1-yard plunges please!

Will NE or ATL make a FG in the 2nd quarter. I bet no and my 10 will return $33. Just a hunch that there will be few fgs, perhaps none in the 2nd quarter. Anyway the payoff is worth the risk.

Game MVP will be DeVante Freeman and my 10 will return $260.
Game MVP will be Mohamed Sanu and my10 will return $810.
If the Falcons win and the Patriots focus on shutting down Julio Jones, it might leave these two to vie for MVP honors. And the odds were worth taking a flyer. If  Freeman rushes for 100 yards and two TDs, that would make him MVP worthy. Same with Sanu...two TDs and 100 receiving yards should put him in contention.

I'd be interested in any feedback!

Strip Trip - Trop, Excal, Monte Carlo, MGM and Venetian

It's been almost a week since I drove down to the Strip, so that was my destination on Monday.

I wanted to check out some places that I hadn't visited recently, so I parked at Tropicana. This Vegas icon was pretty shabby the last time I was here, maybe 3 years ago. But it's undergone a facelift and is much cleaner and shinier than before.

It was about 9:30 when I got there and found a blackjack table that had only 1 other player, a frumpy-looking woman from Washington, DC. She was, I'd guess, in her mid-40s and nursing an early-morning beer. We both had a good run of cards with the dealer breaking at a few opportune times. She asked where I was from and I asked what she did in Washington.

"Well, I am a lawyer, but I left my firm to work on Hillary's campaign."

"So now both of you are out of work, huh?" I replied.

She had planned on landing a cushy administration job after Hillary got sworn in, but something happened on the way to the party. In life, like in blackjack, there are very few sure things!

I left The Trop up $90 and walked over the pedestrian bridge to Excalibur. There were only 2 blackjack games going and they were full, so I left there and crossed another pedestrian bridge to NewYork-New York, one of my least favorite casinos. I don't like it because I always get turned around and confused in this multi-level mish-mash gambling joint. Again, no good BJ games, so I made my way out and walked north to The Monte Carlo.

At least I'm getting some walking in today!

By now it was just after 11 and I was thinking about lunch. I checked out the MC buffet, but it was $19.95 for the lunch with no discount for card holders. Didn't want to pay that much for my lunch, so I left there - again without playing - and walked to MGM, planning on having lunch at a small deli near the sports book. They serve up a tasty chicken salad on rye sandwich with a crunchy pickle and small drink for $10. That's a good deal, I think.

After lunch I played some BJ and couldn't win a hand. In just 15 minutes I had given back the $90 that I had won earlier at the Trop. Aaaargh. So I walked back to the Trop and got the car, planning my next move.

I decided to drive to The Venetian - not only to play at one of my favorite places, but also to check the status of our Willie Nelson concert tomorrow night. Because of illness, Willie had cancelled his first two shows there last weekend and I was hoping they didn't cancel the Wednesday show too. The woman at the ticket counter assured me the show as still on, so that was good.

I prowled the gaming floor, looking for a $10 bj game that paid 3-2 for a blackjack. Too many of those low minimum bet games pay only 6-5 for a bj. That can make a big difference in your profits. For example, if you bet $15 and get a A-K in a 3-2 game you would be paid $22.50. But in a 6-5 game you only get $18. Do that 4 or 5 times over the course of a session and you can see the difference.

Anyway, I spotted a table with a sign that said it paid 3-2, so I sat down. I quickly learned it was a new type of BJ game, called BJ Zinger or Zapper or something. It's regular BJ with two changes. If the player gets a 15, 16, 17 or 18 he has the option of dumping the hand and taking the next two cards out of the shoe. In return for that advantage, if the dealer gets 22 on the nose, it's a push for the table.
On my second hand, I got a 15 against the dealer's nine and opted to dump my hand. My next two cards Ace & Queen! Not a blackjack, but still a winner against the dealer's 19.

I kept track and I used the dump option 5 times, winning each time with 20 or 21. And the dealer only hit 22 once against us. I played for about 30 minutes and won $120, my profit for the day.

After leaving the Venetian, I made a stop at the Westgate, home of the most Super Bowl Prop Bets in the world. I made a few prop bets and then headed home. More details on those wagers in the next blog entry. On the way home, I stopped to get a foot-long Turkey & Cole Slaw sandwich from Capriotti's our favorite local sandwich joint. Dinner was a half of that with a side edamame and quinoa salad. Tasty stuff!

While I was on the Strip, Helen was reading her friend Sandy's novel. Helen says it's an exciting tale and really well-written. She has just a few pages to go! Today she wants to get her hair cut, so I'll be taking her for that.

And so our adventure continues...












Sunday, January 29, 2017

Losing is Part of Life

We've been on a steady losing streak at the blackjack table, but have bounced back a bit by winning some basketball wagers.

For the past four days I've had losing BJ sessions at Rampart and Red Rock. I've been hanging out at those locals casinos after finally logging enough poker hours at Ballys to qualify for the monthly free roll tournament on Feb. 2.

The tourney will pay $400 to the top 50 finishers and the scuttlebutt among players is that there might not be 50 players who logged the 60 hours in January to qualify for the event. Word is that everyone who put in the time will get $400. That would be nice. Be we haven't heard that from the poker room management, so we'll so if that's true. Another good aspect is that Ballys offers $1 in comps for every hour logged, so that's $60 that can be used for food, gifts, etc at Ballys.

From my records, I played 16 poker sessions at Ballys in January - 10 winners and six losers - with a profit of $935.

This morning I went to Red Rock to invest in some hoops tickets. I put $25 of U-M/MSU over the total of 135 1/2. I'm figuring both can get very close or over 70 in this grudge match. Also put $10 on a money line parlay of Louisville, Perdue and Northwestern. It'll pay $40.

Helen's been busy reading over the past week. Her great childhood friend Sandy sent her an manuscript of a science fiction novel that she has written. Helen is pouring over it and seems to enjoy the tale so far.

We're planning on a busy week coming up. On Wednesday we have tickets for a Willie Nelson concert at the Venetian. Willie cancelled shows yesterday and tonight, so we're hoping the Wednesday gig goes as scheduled. Then on Thursday I play in the aforementioned Bally's Free Roll Poker Tourney. On Friday. Helen and I head to the Venetian for a comped Super Bowl Weekend. A free suite for 3 days, plus tickets to a private party. Should be fun!!

And so our adventure continues...

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Catching Up

It's been far too long since I last posted something, so after a little reminder from a friend, here's what we've been up to.

I've been playing a lot of poker at Ballys in order to qualify for their free-roll tournament on Feb. 2. Yesterday I played for 4 hours and posted a nice $160 win. Much of that came on two hands. On the first, I was dealt K-9 of hearts and the flop came A-K-9 of mixed suits. After flopping the two pair, I bet $15 and everyone folded except one guy who raised it to $30. I hesitantly called, wondering if he had A-K. My worries were alleviated when the turn card was another 9 and I started hoping that he DID have A-K.

I checked. He bet $30 and I just called. The river card was a harmless 2. I bet $15  on the river and my foe shoved in all his remaining chips, about $40. I quickly called. He showed A-Q and I showed my full house. He quickly rebought for $50. But I took all of those chips when I hit a flush that beat his two pair!!

Last week Helen and I went to a show called "Solid Gold Soul," featuring a lot of Motown music and entertainers portraying such stars as Ray Charles, James Brown, Jackie Wilson, the Four Tops, Smokey Robinson and more. It was a fun-filled 90 minutes and I recommend it to anyone coming to Vegas who loves that Motown Sound.

Helen has been battling a cold lately and we've spent a lot of quiet nights watching TV and relaxing. She keeps busy on the phone with Anna, Scott and other family members.

Next week we will be spending Feb 3-5 as guests of the Venetian where we've been invited to a free SuperBowl party. It includes tickets to the party and 3 comped nights in a V suite! Should be fun. The V is one of our favorite casinos and it's home to one of our favorite eateries - the Grand Lux Café.

And so our adventure continues!


Monday, January 9, 2017

Three Days of Poker and Concert Tickets

Saturday, Sunday andtoday I played poker at Ballys, winning each day.

On Saturday I had a great day, posting a win of $410. No huge pots, but winning steadily with great cards. I left the poker table to watch the Raiders playoff game at Planet Hollywood. After the first half, I left and drove home.

On Sunday I was back at Ballys playing poker. The most interesting hand took place when I was dealt 2-2 and called a $10 bet see the flop, which came Q-J-5. The original bettor again bet $10 and I was wondering whether to call or not when all of a sudden the next bettor raised it to $75. That made it an easy decision to fold my deuces. So the turn card comes and, yep, it's a 2.

Darn, that would have given me trips and a pretty decent hand against this board. The betting really took off and three guys ended up going All in - swelling the pot to $800. Then the river card comes - it's ANOTHER TWO!

My quad twos would have taken down this HUGE pot, plus earned a Hourly High Hand bonus of $100 and another $85 for hitting quads! Of course, I was out of the hand and the eventual winner, sitting to my immediate right, had a full house, Three 5s and 2 deuces. When he finished stacking all the chips he had $800.

I ended up winning $150 and logging about four hours of play while watching football.

This morning I left the apartment early and stopped at Rampart to cash a $40 basketball ticket. I played some blackjack and won $200 in about 20 minutes before heading out to the Strip. One of my errands today was to buy tickets to see John Fogerty in March at The Wynn Resort. I arrived at Wynn about 9:30, but the ticket office didn't open til 10, so I found a blackjack table and settled in. I won the first hand, then the second, then the third. In less that 30 minutes I won $185 and walked over to get the tickets.

Then I drove to Ballys to log some more poker time. Highlight of this morning session was when I was dealt 7-7 and hit a third seven on the flop, along with a K-9 of mixed suits. I bet $10 and a guy at the end of the table raised it to $30. I just called, not wanting to scare him away with a raise. The turn card was an Ace and I checked, hoping the other guy would bet. He bet $40 and I just called again. The river card was THE FOURTH SEVEN. And I again checked. My foe bet $50 and I raised it to $100. He thought and thought and finally folded.

I showed the quad sevens, taking down a big pot and winning a $50 bonus for the quads. I ended the session up $135, then drove over to The Orleans to snag concert tickets for Kenny Wayne Shepherd, a blues guitarist that Helen and I really like. We've seen him 3-4 times before and it's always a great show. The front row tickets were only $55 each, so I was determined to see if I could win enough at blackjack to cover the cost. The plan worked perfectly. In about 30 minutes I won $140 and walked away a winner!

And so our adventure continues...








Thursday, January 5, 2017

Wild Card Weekend Odds

While at Red Rock last night, I picked up a sheet with the NFL Wild Card Weekend Odds.

On Saturday, the Texans are -3 over the Raiders and the Seahawks are -7.5 over the Lions.

On Sunday, the Steelers are -10 over the Dolphins and the Packers are -4.5 over the Giants.

Current odds to win the SuperBowl:

Patriots 10-11
Cowboys 14-5
Steelers & Falcons 7-1
Packers 8-1
Chiefs & Seahawks 9-1
Giants 12-1
Lions 60-1
Raiders, Texans & Dolphins 65-1

Current line on the SuperBowl

AFC team -3 over the NFC team. This looks like a good bet if you think the Pats will get to the game, since they will probably be highly favored over any of the NFC teams, except maybe Dallas. And even then the might be -5 or so.

CES Hotel Prices and Spartans Rule

On Wednesday I headed to Ballys to play poker and soak up some of the buzz generated by the Consumer Electronics Show, a huge convention that brings some 175,000 participants to town.

Arrived at Ballys about 10 a.m. and the poker room was D-E-A-D! Spent two hours sipping coffee and talking with dealers and floor bosses while waiting to get enough players to play. The poker room manager was telling us that Ballys was charging $189 for room that night because it was the night before CES and that for Thursday, the first day of the show, the rates go to $599 a night....FOR BALLYS where the room are often $39-59 a night.

The hotels all up and down the Strip have raised rates for CES. There's a story in today's LV Review-Journal wondering if the rate hikes will turn off the visitors. I don't think most convention folks care about the rates, since their companies are footing the bill. They're here on corporate credit cards. The one who it hurts are the start-ups and small companies who barely manage to afford an expensive weekend in Vegas.

We finally got a poker game going about noon and it was nothing to brag about. Six of us played and I left after two hours and winning $40. No big hands, no drama, just two hours of winning $10-15 pots and not losing too often.

I left at 2 p.m. because Helen and I had planned to go to Red Rock casino sports book and watch the Spartans basketball team play Rutgers. The game started at 3:30 and we got there just in time for me to buy a $30 ticket on Over the Total of 127. I figured both teams could get almost 70 points. Both teams came out shooting the ball and we actually won the bet with about 8 minutes left in the game. The final score was  93-65 and we won $27.

As we were leaving Red Rock, Anna called Helen and the two chatted as we left the casino and all through the 10-minute drive home and for another hour after we were home. Man, those two can talk and talk. I warmed up a pasta dinner for us and we relaxed watching TV.

And so our adventure continues...

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Poker at Ballys

Recorded my first winning poker session of 2017 at Ballys on Monday and it was highlighted by two big hands.

I got to the poker room about 10 a.m. and immediately got a seat at a game that had been going overnight. There were 6 bleary-eyed guys at the table, each with more than $300 in chips stacked in front of them. I like this kind of situation, because they are tired, often a little drunk, and they have chips to put at risk. I bought in for $100 and vowed to wait patiently until I had a good hand.

With one eye on the WMU-Wisconsin game, I played conservatively until I looked down at K-K, a hand that got me in trouble twice the day before. This time, though, I hoped for better fortune. It came on the flop of Q-10-4 of different suits. One guy bet $10 and got two callers, before I raised it to $20. Only the original bettor called, so it was just us vying for the pot of roughly $80. The turn was a 2, no help, but no danger either. My opponent bet $30 and I just called. The river card was another 2 and my opponent bet $35, which I called. He showed A-Q for two pair, queens and deuces. I turned over my kings and the dealer shoved the hefty pot in my direction.

There was a guy at the table from Rochester Hills and he had $50 on WMU because he wife went there. He is a poker dealer at the MGM Grand in Detroit and was getting 8.5 points and cashed when the Broncos lost by only 8, 24-16.

For over an hour I didn't really get involved in the action. My cards were really dead...Q-4, 9-2, 8-3. Until finally I looked down and saw A-A winking back at me. After 3 guys called the $2 blinds, one guy raised it to $17. Instead of re-raising and chasing people away, I just called, along with one other player. The flop came K-6-3 of different suits. At this point, I'm hoping the raiser had one king, but not two. He bets $25 and I'm the only caller. The turn card is a 9 and I like that. The bettor pushes in $30 and I hem and haw before calling. I'm feeling pretty confident at this point. The river card is another 3 and the bettor shoves out $40. I call and show my Aces. He reluctantly shows A-K and begins moaning about how he couldn't believe he lost. "I played it just the way I wanted," he said two or three times.

"So did I," I answered. "So did I."

After 3-plus hours, I headed home with $153 in profits.

While I was at Ballys, Helen was on the phone with sister-in-law Lorraine in Thousands Oaks, CA. Turns out Norman is not coming to LV for the CES convention, which starts Thursday. Helen also talked with her sister Natalie and texted with Anna during the day. She also took down our small Christmas Tree and watched a couple of Lifetime Movies. I made us a pasta dish and salad for dinner and we wound down watching a little TV.

And so our LV adventure continues...

Monday, January 2, 2017

Hello, 2017

It's been two weeks since we posted anything...no good reason, just a combination of busy and lazy.

But in 2017 we'll try to do a better job of recording our day to day activities.

For Christmas, Helen and I spent two days at Ballys, enjoying our comped room and playing some slots. We visited the Bellagio Conservatory and enjoyed a delicious Christmas Day dinner at the Grand Lux Café at the Venetian. That's been a Christmas Day tradition for us for a few years now. Helen enjoyed some beef medallions with mashed potatoes and steamed veggies, while I opted for Sunday Night Pasta, a thick beef/pork/lamb and mushroom ragu over pasta. Neither of us could finish the meal and we enjoyed the leftovers the next day.

New Year's Eve was spent quietly at home watching a movie and enjoying some snacks together. Our days of wild partying are past, it seems.

Gambling has been a bit down lately. I played poker for 6 hours yesterday at Ballys and dropped $50. It was a fun, but frustrating day at the table. I won a couple of pots early, but then went about two hours without a win. My stack melted away from the blinds. But then I was dealt K-K and figured I would finally get another win. I bet $12 and was called by two other guys. The flop came 9-7-2 of different suits. This was good for me, since and Ace didn't hit the board. I bet $20 and only one guy called. The turn card was a 4, another nice low card. I bet my last $35, not expecting the guy to call. But he did. The river card was a Jack. We both showed our cards and the guy shows 7-4 of different suits for two pair. He had called my first $12 bet with 7-4 offsuit and continued to call with that lame hand.

I had K-K two more times during the six hours and only won with them once, taking down a small pot. Frustrating to get good cards and not have them really pay off....or lose!

Starting Jan. 1, Ballys started a new poker tournament. They no long will have the weekly freeroll that required 12 hours of play to qualify. They are now doing one Monthly freeroll that takes 60 hours of play over the month to qualify. That's a lot of poker, but they have also upped the prize money. Now the top 50 players will receive $400 each, instead of the previous prize of $300. So I plan to try to get in the 60 hours. Instead of roughly 12 hours a week, I'll need to post roughly 15 hours a week.

By requiring all those hours, it means the tourney will be almost exclusively locals playing. Very few guests will be around long enough to log the hours and play in the tourney. I guess if you were here for a week and played 12 hours a day for 5 days and happened to be here when the tourney was held they could qualify. But it's very few who will do that. So we'll see how it goes when the first tourney goes in early Feb.

Helen and I have been watching some football too. Saw Michigan lose, the Lions lose, the Raiders lose. See a trend here? Today I plan to watch Western Michigan. Hope they can break the losing streak against Wisconsin. Helen's been busy keeping in touch with friends and family. She's having some nerve related pain and hasn't felt up to going anywhere, so we've spent time relaxing in the apartment.

Helen's brother Norman is supposed to be coming to LV this week for the big CES computer show. But he doesn't think he'll have much free time, so I don't know if we'll see him or not. CES brings tons of folks to town, but they are notoriously tight with money, especially tips.

There's an old local joke about the computer show is that 165,000 electronics geeks come to town with a white shirt and a $20 bill and they don't change either one!

And so our LV adventure continues...